Punch The Numbers

Card Analysis

Fighter 1
VS
Fighter 2

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Fetching upcoming UFC event from ESPN

NameDivisionRecordArchetypeTags
Momentum Landscape
High ≥70 Mid 45–69 Low <45
Rising Stars Established Elite Rebuilding Slipping
NameDivisionRecordScoreAgeBracketArchetype

For each tag or archetype, shows historical win rate when a fighter with that attribute faced a fighter without it. Signal > 55% or < 45% indicates genuine predictive power.

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No predictions yet — use Card Analysis to generate analysis, then click "Lock prediction" on each fight.

Feature importance analysis — which stats and tags actually predict fight outcomes.

Trained on historical fight data where both fighters are in the roster.

No results yet

Click "Train model" to run the analysis.
Takes about 60 seconds. Requires xgboost and scikit-learn.

pip install xgboost scikit-learn

Enter the sportsbook odds and your model's confidence. The calculator checks all three filters and returns a recommended bet size via Kelly Criterion.

Use + for underdog, − for favourite

Your model's estimated win probability

Implied probability
Edge
EV per $100
Filter 1 — minimum edge
Model confidence must exceed implied probability by > 5%
Filter 2 — confidence tier
Clear edge (63%+) or strong edge (75%+) required
Filter 3 — positive EV
Expected value must be greater than zero
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Enter odds and confidence to evaluate
Full Kelly
Half Kelly
Quarter Kelly ✓

Quarter Kelly is recommended for most bettors — preserves bankroll through variance while capturing meaningful edge.

Hover over any tag anywhere in the app to see its definition inline. Full reference below.